Boosted by an early start to holiday shopping in October, US Census Bureau data shows retail sales meeting expectations throughout November and into December.

“November’s results show a strong start to the traditional holiday season,” says National Retail Federation (NRF) chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “These numbers combined with better-than-expected October sales are evidence that consumer spending continues to fuel the economy. Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending. This growth comes even though the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest shopping portion of the holiday season and pushed Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday sales into December. The season’s pace of spending is clearly on track to reach our forecast.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in November were up 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month and up 3.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year, compared to increases of 0.5 percent month-over-month and 2.9 percent year-over-year in October.

The November data aligns with the National Retail Federation’s forecast, which saw holiday sales growing 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent over 2023. The NRF defines the season as November 1 through December 31, but nearly half (45 percent) of holiday shoppers planned to begin before then and 58 percent had started by early November.