Food waste is gaining momentum as a leading concern among bakery shoppers, according to Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, who spoke at Corbion’s recent Media Day 2023.

“Cherry-picking consumers focus on buying what they need and wasting less,” Roerink explained. “Consumers are buying fewer units per trip – down 4% vs. a year ago.”

Inflation is coming down, yet there are key customer behavioral changes that are lingering from pandemic times. Roerink points to two: 93% of shoppers are making one or more changes when buying groceries, and 39% are ordering from restaurants less often. Of note, 74% of consumers are buying at least some groceries in different stores than they normally shop because of inflation.

Introducing the “Little Less” Generation.

Bakery dollars spent at US grocery stores are up 10.6%, but units are down overall by 1.9%.

There is a bright side to this developing trend, though, and that is shoppers are looking for reasons to splurge a little.

More than half (57%) of shoppers try to recreate restaurant meals at home.

Shoppers are shifting where they look for promotions. Instore signage, store app, and online circular now rank as the top three places they go.

A good idea for retailers is to point out the cost-effectiveness of cooking for yourself and your family, Roerink said.

“Consumers are eying sales promotions, and people are willing to switch what they are going to buy,” she adds. “Personalized promotions based on past purchases (62% say so) are a good or great idea.”

Roerink suggests promoting “merry making moments” as a trigger to spark impulse purchases, a key for fresh bakery.

Beyond the obvious holidays, there are lots of micro holiday opportunities on the rise – World Cup soccer, Taylor Swift, tailgating. “Day of the Dead is coming on.”

People are even inventing their own holidays, like Hatch chile festivals.

“That is what we are going to see in retail for a while,” she says.